Thursday, June 11, 2009

Efficient Market Hypothesis

仍然相信 Efficient Market Hypothesis 嗎?

New York Times 6/05/2009 Poking Holes in a Theory on Markets

老實說,我相信在短期之內 EMH 可以錯的非常厲害,不過長期來看我還是相信 EMH。不過這個從 UChicago 出來的點子跟他們的總體新古典學派一樣,都面臨了均衡狀態在短期可能偏離應有水準,而調整過程常常長到讓人無法抗拒想要做些什麼事情的衝動。

話又說回來,我們一直看到如下面這樣的討論:

Yes, Your Favorite Hedge Fund Manager Is Probably Just Lucky

也許答案應該如 Zvi Bodie 建議,股票沒有那麼值得投資?

Time 6/15/2009 Are Stocks Still Good for the Long Run?

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