Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Dell Will Go Dark, for Real

WSJ, 2/6/2013, "Dell to Sell Itself for $24.4 Billion", By BEN WORTHEN, IAN SHERR and SHIRA OVIDE

Dell 的創辦人 Michael Dell 和私募基金 Silver Lake 將以每股 $13.65 的價格買回股份讓公司下市。Dell 的股票在星期二的收盤價是 $13.42,不過這價格有不少是因為這個股票買回下市的計畫造成的,以計畫被提出時價格來計算,$13.65 包含了 25% 溢價。程序還沒有走完,文章裡面提及
Dell said the deal requires approval by a majority of shares outstanding, excluding those owned by management and directors.
 一 般在評估 LBO (leveraged buyout) 時通常直接看投資績效。從事 LBO 的投資目的是要將公司整頓或拆解後賣出,像這次要下市之後掌握更多主導權繼續經營的較少。這個案子到底會不會成功就要看 Michael Dell 對 PC 產業有什麼樣的願景以及這個願景能否成真並且獲利。自從金融風暴以來,由於銀行不願意把資金貸出,所以 LBO 市場冷淡了好一段時間。如果這個案子能夠代表借貸市場開始活絡起來,倒不是壞事。不過我對於這部份的意義持保留態度,因為這個案子有太多特殊的地方。

H-P 在消息正式公布後兩個小時以內提出他們的評論,認為這個案子對於 Dell 的顧客不利。這是個很有趣的說法,特別是這說法來自於 Dell 的競爭對手,這對 H-P 應該是好事(H-P 的股價也的確上漲)。一般的看法是 $13.65 的交易價格對於 Dell 現在的股東來講雖有不小的溢價,但是仍然會有很多人不滿意。我自己的看法則是我不太相信這對於 Michael Dell 來講會是個好投資,因為即便還有方法可以讓 Dell 重振當年威風,那方法也未必是 Michael Dell 可以提供的。許多創業成功者很容易被自己的成功給迷惑,忽略掉他們有不少的成功來自於運氣,在適當的時間於適當的地方做了正確的事情,而這些因素碰在一起 並不一定都是他們的判斷正確,只是剛好而已。

在看清楚 Michael Dell 要怎麼做之前評論都還太早。反正這家公司要下市,而且它現在的市價也幾乎等於未來收購價,對於一般投資人來說已經是個無關的投資標的了。大概最大的用處是 在財務管理課程剛開始時告訴學生並不是所有的公司一定都要往上市這個方向走,有些公司並不尋求上市(奇美這家公司是台灣比較有名的例子),以這次的 Dell 而言他們甚至反其道而行。

這次另外一件有意思的事情是 Microsoft 的介入:

WSJ, 2/5/2013, "Microsoft Takes a Side in PC Wars", By SHIRA OVIDE And ANUPREETA DAS

在 總金額大約 $24.4 bn 的案子裡,Microsoft  可能提供了 $2 bn 的貸款。這投資是雙面刃,一方面他們幫助 Dell 完成了下市的計畫,如果從 Michael Dell 的角度來看,對於 Dell 的競爭力及未來價值有正面貢獻。但是 Microsoft 也因此製造了跟其他 PC 廠商如 H-P、Lenovo 以及 Acer 等的緊張關係。這點可以跟 Google 買下 Motorola 做對比,其他 Android 手機廠商如 Samsung, HTC, LG 等都擔心 Google 有了自己的硬體廠商之後跟其他廠商的關係會逐漸冷卻。

不管從 Microsoft 的發言或是他們的注資方式看來,這個話題應該過個一兩年就會淡化。Microsoft 只是希望穩定住 PC 產業以維持他們現在已經失去成長動能的利潤,我看不出他們打算軟硬通吃的企圖。這個投資事實上影響力恐怕還低於他們自己岀的 Surface 平板電腦所吹皺的一池春水。

1 comment:

楊大寶 said...

For Dell, a $24.4B valuation signify a TEV around $22B. In the past 10 years, Dell only failed to achieve a net income less than $2.2B twice. So from a net income point of view, Dell(the human) is buying back his company at a pretty decent multiple.

Dell always has a good business, and it has real cash flow and a good balance sheet. Some companies might show you growing revenue and even growing net income, but they burn cash at an insane speed and loaded with mountains of debts. Dell's business only needs to stomach a small amount of inventories and spends little on overheads, hence the healthy cash flows. Also, unlike some dodgy Chinese companies currently listed on US exchanges, Dell has a legitimate, honest operation, which makes its undervaluation so bitter to swallow. I guess Dell(the human, again) just fed up with the low valuation.

Stock market doesn't like stable cashcows, it loves companies with good stories. Dell try to become a B2B company which historically the street also doesn't particularly like.

Not to mention the fact that if Dell go private, it can use the most conservative depreciation/amortization policy, maybe even write down some goodwill and intangible assets, or recognize loss in some of its investments/subsidiaries. For a public company, these kind of actions will get you a PR nightmare because earnings take a hard hit, but for a private company, it get you a juicy NOL carryforward and boost your cash flow.

For current price, Dell is being taken at an attractive price, and if some activists such as Icahn come in, starting kicking and screaming to drive the stock price up, Dell as the largest stockholder will benefit anyway.