tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post343350670399003416..comments2023-05-12T16:41:08.754+08:00Comments on Forecast Error: It Is Not a "Fair" World and Is Not Going to Be,CCLuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08569770663341206042noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-33108402560332468822012-03-05T19:32:39.410+08:002012-03-05T19:32:39.410+08:00There are always endless amount of conspiracy theo...There are always endless amount of conspiracy theories on how money and power leads to corruption in finance industry. And politicians and bankers are teaming up doing evil deeds and poor hard-working people are suffering. Please.<br /><br />Hindsight is 20-20. It is so easy to say CDS and derivatives were going to blow up now. However, what is difficult is to try to come up with a solution that can prevent disasters happen again.<br /><br />But is it really possible? Ultimately, people wrote CDS were making an investment mistake, and legislation just cannot prevent people from making investment mistakes. For example, CHT once lost a lot of money(at least on paper) by buying a currency accumulator from Goldman Sachs. Accumulators are not allowed in Taiwan because of the very reason that they are risky, which is why they are banned in US as well. But does it prevent CHT fly all the way to Hong Kong to bet against Goldman Sachs? Sadly, no.楊大寶https://www.blogger.com/profile/04692847628587763718noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-30115322304173432552012-03-04T23:25:37.243+08:002012-03-04T23:25:37.243+08:00CCLu, great post and you outlined some meaty issue...CCLu, great post and you outlined some meaty issues facing the U.S. and the world.<br /><br />A quick thoughts for now - the meteoric rise in salaries in professional sports over the last 30+ years coincide with the emergence of powerful players unions. I am generally not a big fan of organized labor, but in this case, I think union was necessary to break the professional sports' monopolistic power on player salaries.Benhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00740609394472273217noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-9605443424373870942012-03-03T21:27:56.467+08:002012-03-03T21:27:56.467+08:00我想,cclu大太過簡化了一般人(或對我這種一般人)對華爾街的憎恨理由。我並不認為企業高管拿高薪有什...我想,cclu大太過簡化了一般人(或對我這種一般人)對華爾街的憎恨理由。我並不認為企業高管拿高薪有什麼錯,只要股東願意,而且也知道這些人在搞什麼鬼。在談對華爾街的不滿前,我想先提一個不曉得cclu大沒想過,或是刻意忽略的重點,那就是投資銀行跟實業的差異性。人們可以容忍Obama援救汽車業是因為這些企業創造的利潤是透過生產實際的商品從而獲取其中的附加價值,明星球員雖然不提供實體商品,但是他們透過提供別人無法提供的服務,來獲得他們應有的身價,人們並不認為這有什麼錯,又何必去佔領洋基球場!?<br />再回到華爾街的問題上,我想有三點很重要,第一個是對照於實業,金融市場的獲利有很大部分來自於零和而不是真正創造價值,第二點是投資銀行的超額利潤來自於市場的高風險,第三點華爾街透過遊說讓一般人曝露在不必要的金融風險中。<br />原本前兩點也沒什麼問題--只要這些人拿的是自己的錢。問題是,麻煩的就在這裡。比方說CDS,賣給債券持有人CDS是一項好的金融服務,可是賣CDS給非債券持有人或者賣1億的CDS給只買了100萬債券的人就變成單純對賭了。如果保險公司願意讓業務員隨便賣壽險給要保人跟被保險人沒關係的人,或者年收入100萬卻要保1億壽險的人,我想每個業務員都會選擇先把佣金放到口袋裏再說,反正被保險人掛了是公司賠,佣金又不用還。<br />透過代理制度或許能解決前兩點,但我不覺得華爾街的問題只是單純的代理問題,第三點帶來的問題是錢權結合修改遊戲規則的麻煩事,或許許多右派覺得第三點是左派虛構的陰謀論,不過對我這個偽左派電子工程師來說,我觀察到的是系統上的負回饋機制被改成正回饋,短期內我們會看到效率的大幅提升,而就長期來說,正回饋代表著我們將往崩潰一路奔去,08年那次本來就該崩潰了,只差在右的不夠徹底,有人開外掛把錢改成無限量而已!上海廢人https://www.blogger.com/profile/02852948547000125476noreply@blogger.com