tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post1990448265347200746..comments2023-05-12T16:41:08.754+08:00Comments on Forecast Error: Ya or Nay on Bernanke's Next Term?CCLuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08569770663341206042noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-73851644426016886122010-01-27T10:49:49.625+08:002010-01-27T10:49:49.625+08:00有關債務問題大概是一般經濟學家和鄉民看法最分歧的地方吧,資產泡沫化和負債問題應該是一體兩面,資產泡沫...有關債務問題大概是一般經濟學家和鄉民看法最分歧的地方吧,資產泡沫化和負債問題應該是一體兩面,資產泡沫化是經濟學家的語言,債務問題鄉民就很容易理解。<br /><br />如果銀行借錢都沒有抵押,資產當然立即泡沫化,但銀行再笨也不能公開這樣幹。但銀行如果借你八萬元去買當下價值六萬元的房子,只要利率夠低,大家還是很高興,經濟也很好,但過幾年房市當然就泡沫化,像我2003在米國買房子基本上就是這樣,幸好在2007年發現情況不對就趕快脫手。Fed Chairman應該不是只是設定利息然後看看CPI吧,如果是這樣他當然看不到問題,因為在米國mortgate也沒有算在CPI裡面(好像以前有算後來改了),監督整體銀行體質借貸都是他的責任,光是CDO,CDS,MBS這些東西就夠Ben下台了。Mobihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04686604264261718902noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-16438364695953292232010-01-26T14:29:16.716+08:002010-01-26T14:29:16.716+08:00Paul Volcker 人雖老 (出生於 9/5/1927),他去年才又剛訂婚,而且現在也在 Ob...Paul Volcker 人雖老 (出生於 9/5/1927),他去年才又剛訂婚,而且現在也在 Obama 政府裡面擔任 Economic Recovery Advisory Board 的主席,並沒有在退休養老,仍有相當的影響力。<br /><br />對於 Steve Keen 的看法,我無法全盤接受。負債這東西對於整體社會來說是零和的,有人借,有人貸,整體的供給是零。如果以單一國家在全世界的角度來看,或是個人在整體社會的角度來看,當然有負債過高的可能,但是那也必須連結資產一起來看,這部份學界和業界也一直在研究。<br /><br />資產的泡沫化在理論上比較清楚,雖然實務上以及實證上並不是那麼容易判斷,不過最起碼我們知道這是怎麼一回事情。負債到底怎麼樣算是太高,並不是個容易直接判斷的東西。以公司為例,當我們『判斷』負債過高時,在 ROA 或 Sales/Total Assets 這些地方也都會出問題。把負債挑出來說是問題的核心我不覺得是個好主意,直接攻擊資產泡沫化這個點就好了。CCLuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08569770663341206042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-9985834268707140372010-01-26T09:56:41.480+08:002010-01-26T09:56:41.480+08:00我個人支持Steve Keen的看法,直接節錄於下:
"If this were just...我個人支持Steve Keen的看法,直接節錄於下:<br />"If this were just about the interpretation of history, then it would be no big deal. But because they ignored the obvious role of debt in causing the Great Depression, neoclassical economists have stood by while debt has risen to far higher levels than even during the Roaring Twenties.<br /><br />Worse still, Bernanke and his predecessor Alan Greenspan operated as virtual cheerleaders for rising debt levels, justifying every new debt instrument that the finance sector invented, and every new target for lending that it identified, as improving the functioning of markets and democratizing access to credit."<br /><br />http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2010/01/24/debtwatch-no-42-the-economic-case-against-bernanke/<br /><br />如果用Volker取代Ben(雖然他大概太老了),應該會好一些。Mobihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04686604264261718902noreply@blogger.com