tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post9035995994222705243..comments2023-05-12T16:41:08.754+08:00Comments on Forecast Error: Greece and the EuroCCLuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08569770663341206042noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-90597239402982366462012-06-26T18:12:21.769+08:002012-06-26T18:12:21.769+08:00如果希臘要重新採用 drachma,他們再正式交易前會設定一個官方匯率,可想而知這個官方匯率一定是過...如果希臘要重新採用 drachma,他們再正式交易前會設定一個官方匯率,可想而知這個官方匯率一定是過度高估 drachma 價值的,要不然沒有必要這樣做。<br /><br />把歐元債務轉換成 drachma 的過程也會在外匯市場有真正交易之前進行,因此轉用新的 drachma 計算的債務在稍後 drachma 貶值後價格也會大跌。<br /><br />另外在實務上可能會發生的問題是匯率管制和資本進出限制,這些都可以讓官方設定的債務跟債務實際的價值有很大的落差。CCLuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08569770663341206042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-72045614355381837692012-06-26T17:57:40.382+08:002012-06-26T17:57:40.382+08:00您好,您的文章提到「如果可以用匯率貶值『貶』掉一部份欠外國人的債」,這點我有疑問,如果希臘採用新貨幣...您好,您的文章提到「如果可以用匯率貶值『貶』掉一部份欠外國人的債」,這點我有疑問,如果希臘採用新貨幣並讓該貨幣大幅貶值,以歐元(或其他國際貨幣)計價的外債必須用更多希臘貨幣來償還,這樣債務壓力豈不是更沉重? 煩請不吝解答,謝謝!hobohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16445247133123277643noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-71463807491939819692012-06-03T13:16:01.560+08:002012-06-03T13:16:01.560+08:00Keep an eye on the Swiss Franc...let's see if ...Keep an eye on the Swiss Franc...let's see if the Swiss central bank can hold the 1.20 floor.<br /><br />I am doubtful that the U.S. will be able to do anything meaningful in the Euro crisis. There are simply no public support for bailing out foreign countries at this time, especially when we are running a huge deficit and have high unemployment at home. And if the Fed starts buying foreign sovereign debts, I can almost guarantee that California and Illinois will be on the phone in a second with Bernake and ask him to buy their muni bonds.Benhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00740609394472273217noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-88279030768648042332012-06-02T12:26:45.352+08:002012-06-02T12:26:45.352+08:00Spain is going to be a huge headache. It's a m...Spain is going to be a huge headache. It's a much bigger economy than Greece, for one. We've already seen the sentiment that the capital in Europe is leaving the old continent because they are afraid there's no safe haven in the Euro zone.<br /><br />We'll see if the situation got controlled. Obama administration just sent its Under Secretary of Treasury to Europe, I wonder what they can achieve. The U.S. sits on the sideline almost the entire crisis, it is time to step up now. It is apparent that those European "leaders" cannot get the job done. If George W. Bush is the president now, he could be more blunt than Barack Obama.<br /><br />I'm getting the vibe that Obama will be a one-term president. If he cannot turn the labor market around, which I don't think he can, it is hard to get re-elected.CCLuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08569770663341206042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-5250318707795390572012-05-29T01:57:12.112+08:002012-05-29T01:57:12.112+08:00I met an American the other day who has lived and ...I met an American the other day who has lived and worked in Germany over the past 15 years. He told me that German public's opinion on Greece has shifted dramatically since the latest Greek election. He believes that most Germans now support a Greek exit from the EMU.<br /><br />Greece is a lost cause from day one. I am surprised that it survived this long. No need to beat a dead horse any more.<br /><br />Spain, on the other hand, is a much more interesting case. The Bankia bailout seems eerily similar to the Chinese Banking bailout of 1998. Ponzi scheme?<br /><br />http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-28/spain-considers-injecting-debt-instead-of-cash-into-bankia-group.htmlBenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00740609394472273217noreply@blogger.com