tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post3687968885145364241..comments2023-05-12T16:41:08.754+08:00Comments on Forecast Error: Sympton or Diagnosis? Housing "Bubble" and Low Interest RateCCLuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08569770663341206042noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-78570496139950999372013-09-28T01:27:13.696+08:002013-09-28T01:27:13.696+08:00To CCLu,
BTW, 最近朋友想買房子,陪他們逛房市,發現舊金山灣區最近房價不漲,房市也變比...To CCLu,<br /><br />BTW, 最近朋友想買房子,陪他們逛房市,發現舊金山灣區最近房價不漲,房市也變比較冷清了。<br /><br />我覺得是之前有房的人在利率的的時候,已經refinance鎖在3.x%了,負擔很輕。就算現在不需要住了,出租也很划算。Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04333560308689021031noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-26143162281847657472013-09-28T01:17:22.108+08:002013-09-28T01:17:22.108+08:00To CCLu,
熬夜加班幾個禮拜後,終於又有時間回來看您的部落格了。
如同在您這裡也學到了不少...To CCLu,<br /><br />熬夜加班幾個禮拜後,終於又有時間回來看您的部落格了。<br /><br />如同在您這裡也學到了不少經濟方面的知識,我也同意現代人必須一直充實自己,而且還蠻樂在其中的。經濟不是我學過的東西,我不曉得科技對它的影響,所以提一下我的感覺。<br /><br />為什麼我對GDP感到奇怪是因為新聞說在成長,可是我都不覺得生活有什麼改善。<br /><br />我覺得你講的是對的,GDP是參考但不是萬能。也許是因為一直以來不管是媒體、官員出來講經濟有沒有變好都拿它來證明。久而久之就接受了。<br /><br />看您的部落格受益良多,希望繼續經營下去。<br />Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04333560308689021031noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-18816770725572206272013-09-13T11:53:08.689+08:002013-09-13T11:53:08.689+08:00To Ben,
You've got great points as usual.
Lo...To Ben,<br /><br />You've got great points as usual.<br /><br />Low property tax is something we cannot do much about right now. My annual property tax is less than $100 (yes, US dollar). It's not only a joke for you, it's a joke for me as well. I wonder why they bother to collect this amount of money.:p<br /><br />However, if they use the market value of my apartment to tax me under the same tax rate, I can pay 80 times more than it is. That is no laughing matter.<br /><br />A tax raise that magnitude can make a lot of people broke, so it is not going to happen in a democratic state. Even a much lesser extent of tax spike can dramatically decrease the housing value or increase the rent, more likely a combination of these two. It is too late to introduce a "meaningful" property tax in Taiwan right now.<br /><br />I don't believe that tax can solve any problem anyway.<br /><br />It's hard to say what urban planning does to the housing price. We could have better zoning, but it is likely that lack of proper mass transportation will lead to less supply in housing thus lead to higher price tag.<br /><br />My money is on "lack of viable investment alternatives". This is what we should work on. There is no quick or sure fix, but it is the right thing to do. <br /><br />The housing problem is mainly induced by improper government policies, yet people yelling at the government and ask it to solve the problem. This is ironic!CCLuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08569770663341206042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-58697539676382966352013-09-13T11:23:37.037+08:002013-09-13T11:23:37.037+08:00To JiaJia,
經濟史不是我的專長。你可以找找看 Robert Fogel 或是 Dougl...To JiaJia,<br /><br />經濟史不是我的專長。你可以找找看 Robert Fogel 或是 Douglass North 這兩個人的著作,他們是 1993 年諾貝爾獎得主。<br /><br />如果你對經濟跟歷史的結合有興趣,未必要一頭栽進經濟史領域裡來閱讀。廣泛的經濟學閱讀可以讓你自己有不同的視野,而不必侷限於別人的詮釋。我在這篇文章裡提到的 Balance 這本書並不是經濟史著作,Glenn Hubbard 也不是做這個領域的學者,但是他在談羅馬帝國、大明帝國、鄂圖曼土耳其帝國等歷史的時候就相當有趣。前一陣子跟朋友在 Facebook 上閒聊談到王安石變法,也發現自己的想法跟當年看這段歷史的時候很不一樣了。CCLuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08569770663341206042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-82237774979933046552013-09-12T10:18:49.916+08:002013-09-12T10:18:49.916+08:00Oh, one more important factor that I forgot to men...Oh, one more important factor that I forgot to mention:<br /><br />- To boost export competitiveness, Taiwan government devalued NT dollar and implemented capital control in the early years that resulted in huge trade account surplus, high domestic inflation, and low bank deposit interest rates. Benhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00740609394472273217noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-43523744744611667902013-09-12T10:08:35.787+08:002013-09-12T10:08:35.787+08:00I am going to add my $0.02 on this topic. After h...I am going to add my $0.02 on this topic. After having lived in Taipei for almost a year in 2012-13, I can honestly say this - don't buy an apartment in Taipei, rent!<br /><br />Below are, imho, the contributing factors to Taipei's sky-high housing prices:<br /><br />- Low property tax<br />- Lack of viable investment alternatives over the last 40-50 years.<br />- Non-existent or ineffective urban planning in early years. Case in point - MRT wasn't operational till 1996-1997!<br />- Possibly lax banking regulations. Banks are reluctant to write down bad housing loans to reflect true market values on their loan books.<br /><br />High housing prices is not just an economic issue, but also a societal problem. Why do you think that Taiwan has one of the lowest birth rates in the world!? <br />Benhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00740609394472273217noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-27891260503419387212013-09-11T02:27:45.144+08:002013-09-11T02:27:45.144+08:00老師您好,想詢問老師可否有不錯的講經濟史的書籍可以看?
雖然Google過,但擔心水平參差不齊,因...老師您好,想詢問老師可否有不錯的講經濟史的書籍可以看?<br /><br />雖然Google過,但擔心水平參差不齊,因此想詢問一下。<br /><br />希望有中文,但英文也行,感謝老師。JiaJiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10051298558871324377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-44192246946176925342013-09-05T12:42:02.751+08:002013-09-05T12:42:02.751+08:00To 楊大寶,
I started this blog in the heat of the 20...To 楊大寶,<br /><br />I started this blog in the heat of the 2008 financial crisis. It started with the housing problem, so it comes naturally that I discussed housing price soon after. Most of the articles in 2008 were dealing with the aftermath of Lehman Bothers and others.<br /><br />I can't say that estate tax has nothing to do with the housing price, but I don't think that's the main concern either. Because the "official" value of the real estate is much lower than its market value, it has been used to dodge tax of all sorts for many years. The decrease of estate tax rate also coincides with the rising labor cost in China. A lot of one-trick-pony firms came back to Taiwan in the past few years because their cost-down ability is no longer there.CCLuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08569770663341206042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-42941543460883509002013-09-05T12:32:10.446+08:002013-09-05T12:32:10.446+08:00To Eric,
我不認為房價高漲本身是一種病,它是一種徵狀。現在我已經往前拉到到底台灣的利率政策...To Eric,<br /><br />我不認為房價高漲本身是一種病,它是一種徵狀。現在我已經往前拉到到底台灣的利率政策本身是一種病還是徵狀,這裡我的看法是一半一半。<br /><br />如果把徵狀本身當成病來治,也許可以把這個徵狀給解決,但是病仍然在,而且可能會更嚴重。這就像是發燒本身不是病,除非高熱持續不退危及生命必須先散熱,否則重點都還是要抓出病源,而不是解了熱就算了。<br /><br />我不同意你對工程師對經濟造成的影響的看法。現在這個世界一直在前進,學一門手藝吃一輩子的年代已經過去了。現代人必須一直充實自己。這其實並不是一件悲哀的事情,因為我們的平均壽命比百年前的人長了十幾廿歲以上,老化衰退的速度也慢很多,本來就不能期望享受了這些科技進步帶來的好處卻沒有一點負面的影響。以我來講,我其實樂於能夠終身學習,倒不是什麼問題。<br /><br />GDP 其實也沒有很長的歷史,明年才滿 80 年呢。這指數本來就不是萬能,不過在沒有這些總體數據以前,政府都只能瞎子摸象,搞不清楚自己可以做什麼、能做什麼。羅馬帝國就毀滅於通貨膨脹,他們當年犯的錯誤以現代的知識來看簡直不可思議。即使經濟大蕭條 (Great Depression) 也犯了在最糟糕的時機收緊銀根的錯誤,這些都是我們從歷史上學到的教訓。CCLuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08569770663341206042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-8655095845298154852013-09-04T19:41:38.026+08:002013-09-04T19:41:38.026+08:00I think high housing price has more to do with the...I think high housing price has more to do with the inheritance tax was set at 10% from 2009/01/23 onward(http://tinyurl.com/l7m4h7a).<br /><br />Many Taiwanese businessmen/workers spend most of their adult life working overseas, suddenly the inheritance tax was dropped to 10%, obviously this will create an incentive for them to come back home. Price level, public transport, as well as the quality of medical care are quite ideal in Taiwan, hence they probably prefer enjoy their retirement in Taiwan. Along with a low interest rate, high housing<br />price(mainly in Taipei, I live in the south so I don't feel quite as much) in this case might reflect a real need, not just a pure speculation.<br /><br />I did a google search on this blog entering "housing price", all the results are posts written after 2009/01/23, quite interesting.楊大寶https://www.blogger.com/profile/04692847628587763718noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-58990593244978846932013-08-31T11:32:31.943+08:002013-08-31T11:32:31.943+08:00最近灣區、LA這一波的不動產漲勢,其中一個原因是中國買家的介入。all cash,然後比定價再加碼,...最近灣區、LA這一波的不動產漲勢,其中一個原因是中國買家的介入。all cash,然後比定價再加碼,用來洗錢!<br /><br />ClarkUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00889752751869800388noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-87806268152118761762013-08-31T05:59:31.252+08:002013-08-31T05:59:31.252+08:00我在臺灣跟美國都有買過房子。
關於房價,我覺得一般人的還款能力是固定的,就看利率高低來決定房貸額度...我在臺灣跟美國都有買過房子。<br /><br />關於房價,我覺得一般人的還款能力是固定的,就看利率高低來決定房貸額度。除非暴起暴跌,不然買高買低每個月的負擔都是一樣的。<br />美國好多人都貸30年固定利率,臺灣的朋友們都是貸機動利率。<br />所以臺灣的利率漲,已經買房的很多人會繳不起房貸,流失選票。<br />另外,我覺得美國市價課徵房屋稅以及高昂的維護成本(木頭蓋的)有效的抑制房價。<br />即便是這樣,舊金山灣區的房價也漲到工程師買不起的價位,不知道哪裏來的這麼多錢阿?<br /><br />關於經濟,我認爲都是工程師害的。<br />隨着科技的進步,只要有一小搓人做事,就足以供應全人類生活所需了。<br />所以我認爲在科技時代用GDP衡量經濟好壞似乎不太實用。Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04333560308689021031noreply@blogger.com