tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post3473635325620911700..comments2023-05-12T16:41:08.754+08:00Comments on Forecast Error: Mitt Romney, His Economic Advisors and His Tax ReturnsCCLuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08569770663341206042noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-32149767148134990702012-02-09T01:00:57.945+08:002012-02-09T01:00:57.945+08:00The funny/sad thing is that the 22 second holding ...The funny/sad thing is that the 22 second holding period is actually an improvement from a couple of years ago. It used to be 20 seconds!<br /><br />It took me a long time to get EMH out of my head. Ben Graham taught Warren Buffett at your alma mater, and those two guys are definitely not believers in EMH. I mostly agree with your thinking on EMH - in the long run, the market is brutally efficient, but in the long run we will all be dead too....Benhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00740609394472273217noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-62281375873756393982012-02-08T13:46:02.224+08:002012-02-08T13:46:02.224+08:00To Ben,
I think you are right. There's no nam...To Ben,<br /><br />I think you are right. There's no name tag on stock shares, it has to be volume-weighted. A quick look on wiki tells me 70% of the equity trades were HFT in 2010 in the U.S. (no reference for this number though). This is consistent from the number I read somewhere else, so I think it's believable. Since a lot of HFT take only a fraction of a second to get in and out of the position, the average could be as low as 22 seconds.<br /><br />If EMH can be proven to be false, a big part of the asset pricing theory will be claimed dead. It's not like everybody's using it, but we are in for a big trouble if CAPM is not only inaccurate but also wrong. I believe in EMH in a way I consider most of the theories promoted by the Chicago school. They will hold in long run and in average, but a lot of holes can be found.CCLuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08569770663341206042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-25653150602521472962012-02-07T21:47:13.446+08:002012-02-07T21:47:13.446+08:00I think this guy probably meant the volume-weighte...I think this guy probably meant the volume-weighted average holding period of a stock. The 22-second holding time is merely an indication of the proliferation of HFT in the last 10-15 years.<br /><br />Not a big believer in efficient market theory, even thought it was drilled into my head at B-school.Benhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00740609394472273217noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-68889125021735081942012-02-07T13:38:07.449+08:002012-02-07T13:38:07.449+08:00To Ben,
That 22 second thing is interesting. I do...To Ben,<br /><br />That 22 second thing is interesting. I don't think the description "the average holding period of a stock" is accurate though. We've got tons of stocks held by board members, executives, and funds like ETF, or other less actively managed funds, those are traded in quarterly basis, if not longer. <br /><br />While working on TAQ (Trade and Quote) database for my research, I noticed the dramatic increase in trading data in recent years. A lot of people called the demise of the efficient market hypothesis, I guess the profitability of the high-frequency trading strategy can revive it from the death bed.CCLuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08569770663341206042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-91557363942319954842012-02-07T13:26:06.624+08:002012-02-07T13:26:06.624+08:00To Publius,
I think you are right. Chinese media ...To Publius,<br /><br />I think you are right. Chinese media have the tendency to report things in a way that fits their ideology.<br /><br />On the other hand, Taiwan's media tend to present news that can boost their rating, so we see a lot of nonsense at prime time. I think I didn't watch TV news in Taiwan for 6 years. I watch more AC360 or Nightly News on Podcast during the same time span.CCLuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08569770663341206042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-28450383895076037012012-02-07T00:57:55.857+08:002012-02-07T00:57:55.857+08:00Rush Limbaugh is an entertainer...he makes money b...Rush Limbaugh is an entertainer...he makes money by being "provocative." He doesn't reflect the values of mainstream Republicans any more than Ralph Nader being the voice of the Democratic party.<br /><br />Jerry Yang was recently forced to resign from Yahoo's Board because of pressure from activist investors. Yahoo's demise started long ago, and its future as an independent company is probably numbered. The word on the street is that Jerry is a nice guy but couldn't make the tough decisions. As much as I would like to root for a fellow Taiwanese-American, it was time for Jerry Yang to go. <br /><br />I think Zuckerberg will own something like 58% of FB's voting shares after the IPO. At that ratio, not even God can push him out of FB. And if one were going to participate in FB's IPO, ask yourself if this kind of governance arrangement at a $100 billion public company would be a good deal for a long-term investor. Of course, if your investment time frame is measured in seconds, then this is a moot point.<br /><br />Fun and sad fact:<br /><br />Do you know what the average holding period of a stock is these days?<br /><br />Answer: 22 seconds.<br /><br />http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trading-trends-should-lead-to-long-term-thinking-2011-01-12Benhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00740609394472273217noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-68681963282751000172012-02-06T22:56:42.556+08:002012-02-06T22:56:42.556+08:00CCLu,
Personally, I think the reason why Chinese ...CCLu,<br /><br />Personally, I think the reason why Chinese media cover so less GOP primary are:<br /><br />1. Pan-Chinese is pretty pro-Democratic in the US.<br /><br />2. GOP's traditional foreign policy stance on Asian . (especially true when taking China media into account, which they often provide incredible amount of international news with incredibly bad quality.(sometimes even fake news)<br /><br />I wonder this problem when I saw pretty biased Chinese coverage about Scott Walker's Wisconsin event. Most of Chinese news coverage described him as "evil" or some pretty negative terms, as if they are copied from CNN or some liberal media. However, the problem is: if he is that unpopular, why he got elected in the first place in a state with "liberal" traditions?Publiushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13634807099376811440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-90410173623519481272012-02-06T19:50:50.744+08:002012-02-06T19:50:50.744+08:00In the beginning I just considered Ron Paul a nut ...In the beginning I just considered Ron Paul a nut job without any chance. He kind of earned my respect recently. At least I don't think firing Ben Bernanke is such a bad idea anymore. The prospect of QE3 scares the bejesus out of me.<br /><br />I just hope the younger generation of Republicans can be more liberal on social issues, at least have an open mind to those stuff. Every time I thought I like GOP policies better, there's a Rush Limbaugh showing up to remind me why I hated them before.<br /><br />As to the Yahoo-Facebook comparison, I don't have much to say about the founder or their control issue because I don't really know what led to Yahoo's current doom. I've heard that Yang is also responsible to their misery. One reason I can buy into is that Yahoo considered itself a media company when it should work like a technology one. <br /><br />Zuckerberg or not, the biggest challenge is to extract revenue from mobile devices. If FB can do it, great days are ahead of them no matter which role Zuckerberg will be playing.CCLuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08569770663341206042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-29209693752238154822012-02-06T06:26:29.819+08:002012-02-06T06:26:29.819+08:00Thanks for the feedback, CCLu. I think I got the ...Thanks for the feedback, CCLu. I think I got the ID issue resolved.<br /><br />To be honest, Ron Paul intrigues me, and I have been surprised by the strength of his campaign and supporters. He is not going to win the Republican primary, but his ideas are slowly catching on here in the U.S.. I think I am going to check him out when he comes to town.<br /><br />And keep an eye on his son, Rand. Ron may very well be paving the road for Rand's eventual ascend in the Republican party.<br /><br />A quick observation on the FB IPO - look at how much control Zuckerberg will retain even after the company goes public. I guess Jerry Yang wishes that he had done the same:)Benhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00740609394472273217noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-12757559339660962982012-02-05T16:43:46.931+08:002012-02-05T16:43:46.931+08:00To Ben,
It seems we can see your comment using ei...To Ben,<br /><br />It seems we can see your comment using either account now.<br /><br />I respect Ron Paul's ideology, but I think he's too right to talk to. Some of his ideas are out of touch to the real world, for example, re-applying the gold standard in the 21st century. I'm not an inflation hawk, but I understand and respect people who take that stance. However, Ron Paul is usually too extreme to my stomach.<br /><br />Don't expect much coverage of Ron Paul in Taiwanese press, if any. An amateur blogger like me might cover more GOP nomination process than a lot of Taiwanese newspapers. I guess there should be more about GOP in the Chinese press, but I don't think they will have significant coverage of Ron Paul either. He doesn't seem a strong candidate since day one, and his ideology is probably too exotic to Chinese readers.CCLuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08569770663341206042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8261438457608174618.post-12440092910953069982012-02-05T09:55:34.769+08:002012-02-05T09:55:34.769+08:00Hi, CCLu,
This is Ben. For some odd reason, I ha...Hi, CCLu,<br /><br />This is Ben. For some odd reason, I have been having troubles posting comments with my own OpenID in the last few days. So I am using my wife's(Carolyn) Google account for the time being till I figure out what's wrong with my own OpenID.<br /><br />Got a couple of quick questions for you:<br /><br />- What do you think of Ron Paul?<br />- What does the Taiwanese press and/or the Chinese press think of Ron Paul?<br /><br />BenCarolynhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11774543428127066755noreply@blogger.com